A Tale of Two Pitchers
Now that C.C. Sabathia has signed with the New York Yankees, the market for starting pitchers is expected to rapidly take shape. Two of the best free agent pitchers left are righthander Derek Lowe and lefthander Oliver Perez. The pair couldn’t be more different.
Lowe is the model of consistency. A groundball-pitcher with an excellent sinker, Lowe has averaged well over 200 innings a year and has remained remarkably healthy. He’s won a championship and performed very well during his postseason appearances. Lowe strikes out just over six batters per nine and, at age 36, has improved his strikeout-to-walk ratio in each of the last three years. His 2008 season was a little above his norm, as his ERA of 3.24 was a bit lower than his expected ERA of 3.55. Still, Lowe is a very good pitcher. He’s not an ace, but he’s a great option as a number 2 starter. In an age where durability is almost as important as performance, Lowe is blessed to excel at both.
Lowe will certainly have several teams biding for his services. The New York Mets, the New York Yankees, the Boston Red Sox and Philadelphia Phillies are all interested. The Mets admitted on Monday that Lowe is their number one priority right now.
Lowe has said the average annual salary is more important to him than the number of years he is offered. With the market for Sabathia and Johan Santana, baseball’s most elite pitchers, at about $23 million a year, Lowe can expect somewhere between $15 and $17 million annually. A.J. Burnett, an inferior pitcher to Lowe, just received over 16 million a year for the next five seasons. Lowe’s agents are asking for five years, but look for a team to offer a four year deal worth between $65 and $70 million.
Oliver Perez is in many ways, Lowe’s counterpoint. He’s a powerful lefthanded starter who can dominate one game and not make it through the second inning the next. Last year, Perez walked 105 batters and struck out 180. Perez is reasonably durable, but he doesn’t pitch as deeply into games as Lowe does. At 27, Perez has age on his side. While he may improve, Lowe’s performance is as good as it’s going to get.
His agent, Scott Boras, has compared Perez to a young Johan Santana. While that is laughable, Perez does posses front-end-of-the-rotation talent. In addition to a robust strikeout rate, Perez enjoys a track record of performing very well in big games. His playoff performance in 2006 was outstanding as he nearly led the Mets to the National League pennant.
In the end, Perez is probably looking at somewhere between $13 and $15 million annually over four or five years.
The bet here is that the Mets will land one of these starters with both receiving hefty paydays. Both Lowe and Perez will continue to pitch at the front of someone’s rotation.
